Monday, June 15, 2009

6. The Unpredictable Nature of Black Swans

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has written a book called, "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable". While I wouldn't agree with everything in the book, Taleb has grasped something important: It is the highly improbable events that predominantly shape history. The author says that this is easily demonstrated in past history, and that we should expect such impactful events to continue into the future.

Put in the most simple terms, "Black Swans" are major events that could not have been predicted. Such events would include (1) The Lisbon Earthquake of 1755, (2) the Indonesia Tsunami of 2006, (3) The events of 9/11/2001, (4) the Great Flood of antiquity, and (5) the resurrection of Jesus Christ, just to name a few world or nation changing events.

Read Taleb's introduction to see why he calls such events "Black Swans".

There are many important and potential cataclysmic Black Swans in the prophetic sections of the Bible. To most people, the Great Disappearance (one of the next events on the horizon) will seem like a Black Swan occurance. Much more later about this event.

There will be more about other potential Black Swan events as the blog posts continue.

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